The global energy market is staring down the barrel of a $120 oil price, and Donald Trump thinks he has the winning hand. On Friday, the President took to Truth Social to claim that with "a little more time," the U.S. could easily reopen the Strait of Hormuz, seize control, and "make a fortune." It’s classic Trump—part bravado, part geopolitical hardball, and entirely unpredictable. But beneath the all-caps posts lies a terrifying reality for the global economy.
Right now, the most important waterway on earth is a graveyard for tankers and a playground for Iranian mines. Since the U.S. and Israel launched Operation Epic Fury on February 28, 2026—killing Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei in the process—the Strait has been effectively paralyzed. We're not just talking about a few delayed shipments. We're looking at the largest supply disruption in history.
The Strategy Behind the Chaos
You might wonder why Trump is suddenly talking about "taking the oil" when his Press Secretary, Karoline Leavitt, just told reporters that reopening the Strait wasn't a "core objective" for ending the war. It's a classic squeeze play. By signaling that the U.S. doesn't need the Strait to be open to declare victory, Trump is telling America’s Gulf allies—and its enemies—that he’s willing to let the world burn if they don't play by his rules.
The shift on Friday suggests he’s smelled blood in the water. He's moved from telling Saudi Arabia and the UAE to "build up some courage" to promising a "gusher" for the world. If the U.S. military pivots to seizing physical control of the Iranian coastline, the entire landscape of Middle Eastern power changes overnight.
Why the Strait Matters More Than You Think
It’s easy to dismiss this as another regional conflict until you realize that 20% of the world’s oil and a massive chunk of its Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) go through that narrow 21-mile gap.
- Europe is freezing: Following a brutal 2025-2026 winter, European gas storage is at a pathetic 30% capacity.
- Asia is starving: China, India, and Japan account for 75% of the oil that normally flows through Hormuz.
- The Gulf is hungry: These desert nations rely on the Strait for 80% of their food. No ships means no bread.
Iran knows this. Even with their navy largely sitting at the bottom of the Persian Gulf, they've used land-based missiles and drones to turn the waterway into a "no-go" zone. Shipping insurance rates have skyrocketed 600% in a single month. Most companies, including Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd, have simply given up and are routing everything around Africa.
Taking the Oil and Making a Fortune
Trump's latest comments about "taking the oil" shouldn't be taken literally as a colonial land grab, but rather as a threat to Iranian infrastructure. He’s already mentioned that Iranian power plants are next on the target list. By moving from military targets to "civilian-use" infrastructure, he’s trying to break the back of the Iranian resistance.
But there's a catch. Every time the U.S. ramps up the pressure, the risk of a "total blackout" of energy exports grows. Saudi Arabia has already slashed production by 20% because their offshore fields are being targeted. Iraq’s southern fields have seen a 70% drop in production. It’s a mess.
The Brinkmanship Game
If you're looking for logic in the administration's messaging, you'll find a lot of contradictions. One day, Secretary of State Marco Rubio says the Strait will open "one way or another." The next, the White House says they're ready to leave regardless of whether the oil is flowing.
This isn't confusion. It’s intentional. Trump wants Iran to believe he’s crazy enough to leave them in a permanent state of war while the rest of the world suffers the economic fallout. He’s betting that the internal pressure in Tehran—now without a Supreme Leader—will cause the remaining regime elements to buckle and beg for a ceasefire that includes permanent maritime guarantees.
What Happens if the Strait Stays Closed
If Trump’s "little more time" turns into several months, the global economy won't just slow down; it'll break. We're already seeing:
- Force Majeure everywhere: QatarEnergy and Kuwait Petroleum have already hit the "emergency stop" button on their contracts.
- The Jet Fuel Spike: Prices for kerosene-based products like diesel and jet fuel have more than doubled. If you’re planning to fly anywhere this summer, get ready for a shock when you see the ticket prices.
- The Grocery Emergency: In the UAE and Saudi Arabia, retailers are now airlifting staples like flour and rice. This has pushed food prices up by as much as 120% in some areas.
Your Next Moves
Don't wait for the nightly news to tell you that gas is $7 a gallon. If you're running a business that relies on shipping or heavy fuel use, you need to lock in your costs now. The volatility isn't going away.
Follow the movements of the U.S. Fifth Fleet. If you see a massive deployment of minesweepers and a shift toward "escort" missions, Trump's "little more time" might actually be happening. Until then, keep your eye on the Brent Crude tickers. The market is betting on chaos, and for once, the market might be right.
